FOOTBALL NEWSLETTERS 9/23/03-9/29/03 (UPDATE #8)

[SportsGuru]

AS PROMISED I WILL POST SOME...BUT NOT ALL THE NEWSLETTERS EVERY CHANCE I GET. ALL OF THEM ARE AVALIABLE FOR ONLY $65 FOR THE WHOLE SEASON...SEE MY ADD IN THE BILLBOARD SECTION FOR CONTACT INFORMATION!

POINTWISE COLLEGIATE & PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL PROPHECY

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
1* MIAMI-OHIO over Cincinnati
1* OREGON STATE over Arizona State
2* SO CALIFORNIA over California
3* SOUTH CAROLINA over Tennessee
3* IOWA over Michigan State
4* UTAH over Colorado State
5* MICHIGAN over Indiana
5* KANSAS over Missouri

NFL KEY RELEASES
3* MINNESOTA over San Francisco
4* PITTSBURGH over Tennessee
4* DALLAS over New York Jets
4* CLEVELAND over Cincinnati
5* PHILADELPHIA over Buffalo

Summary of Top Rated College Selections

MIAMI-OHIO 38 - Cincinnati 17 - (3:00) - Miami has come back with vengeance after opening day flop. Superb rush "D" has held NW & ColoSt to 1.5 & 1.3 ypr past 2 wks, & Roethlisberger has been brilliant. Cincy in off luckout win vs Temple, & note Bearcat RYs going from 361 to 165 to 136. It has to be 'Hawks

OREGON STATE 31 - Arizona State 17- (4:00) - Reports of Beav RB Jackson's demise were premature (122 RYs vs Boise). Also check QB Anderson's 408 PYs & WR Newson's 208 receiving yds. Balanced, & catching Devils seeking answers is perfect situation for advancing series home trend. Solid revenger.

TENNESSEE 27 - South Carolina 20 - (7:00) - Loved Gamecocks' 42-0 rout of Uab. Led 28-0 at halftime, & topped 200 yds both rushing & passing, behind QB Pinkins & RB Summers. Catch Vols in bit of a sandwich affair (Florida & Auburn). UT clicked on "Hail Mary" at end of 1st half in win over Gators, which was crucial. USC has given the Vols fits, & the visitor is a 6-0 series ATS play. impressive. However, guest owns this series, & dog 15-6 ATS in Cav games.

Iowa 27 - MICHIGAN STATE 10- (12:00) -We know that the dog is normally golden when these 2 meet. Also Spartans in off much needed bounce back win over Irish, & holding foes to just 41.5 RYpg. But Iowa more than a match in that category. Allowed only 184 yds, 12 FDs, & no pts in win over offensively talented ArizSt. Chandler is cooking, & MSt's Smoker playing hurt. We lay it!

[This message was edited by Sports Guru on September 23, 2003 at 12:01 AM.]

[This message was edited by Sports Guru on September 23, 2003 at 01:54 PM.]

[This message was edited by Sports Guru on September 23, 2003 at 05:09 PM.]

 

[SportsGuru]

WINNINGPOINTS FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER

SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS:

BEST BETS
**** Atlanta over *Carolina by 9
*** *Pittsburgh over Tennessee by 17

RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
Philadelphia over *Buffalo by 6
*Baltimore over Kansas City by 9

SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS:

BEST BETS
**** NAVY over RUTGERS* by 17
*** ARKANSAS over ALABAMA* by 16

RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
Iowa State over Northern Illinois* by 7
Illinois* over Wisconsin by 10
Washington State over Oregon* by 7
San Diego State over U.C.L.A.* by 1


Detailed Analysis of NFL & NCAA Best Bets

****BEST BET
Atlanta over *Carolina by 9

It’s rare to find a team in an underdog role when they’ve outscored their opponent, 71-0, last year. But that’s the case with this matchup. The Falcons destroyed the Panthers, 41-0 on the road and 30-0 at home last season. Now the Falcons are an underdog to these same Panthers. True, Mike Vick had something to do with those victories last year, and he’s still a few weeks from returning. The Falcons, though, have beaten Carolina nine of the last 10 times, going 8-1-1 ATS. Considering how strong the NFC South Division is, the Falcons can’t afford to drop to 0-2 in division with a loss here. So this becomes a huge matchup for them. The Panthers are 2-0, but have scored only four more points than they’ve allowed. Carolina entered its bye week ranked 30th in total offense and 25th in total defense. Those are not the statistics of a strong 2-0 team. Sure enough, the Panthers were lucky to beat winless Jacksonville at home in their opener. The Jaguars outgained the Panthers, 331-242. Carolina then used three blocked kicks and excellent defense to upset Tampa Bay two weeks ago. Doug Johnson is not Vick. He’s a smart quarterback, though, and is comfortable running Atlanta’s offense. On the other hand, Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme is a work in progress, starting just his second game. The Panthers don’t have the kind of offense to lay anything more than a field goal. Their strategy is to pound away with Stephen Davis, who already has 55 carries in two games. Atlanta has two good running backs, too, in Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett. The Falcons play on carpet, but are 8-2-2 ATS on grass, including a 5-2 spread mark last year. Don’t be surprised if the Panthers come out flat having lost the momentum they had after beating Tampa Bay by being off for two weeks. The Panthers started off hot last year, too, and then proceeded to lose eight consecutive games. ATLANTA 23-14.

***BEST BET
*Pittsburgh over Tennessee by 17

Double revenge, a top passing game, Joey Porter’s return and Eddie George’s slippage puts us squarely on Pittsburgh. Let’s start with the revenge angle. It’s usually more applicable in college handicapping, but sometimes it applies for the pros. This is one of those times. The Titans frustrated the Steelers twice last year, including ending their season with a 34-31 overtime victory in the playoffs. Both of those losses came on the road for Pittsburgh. The Steelers have been pointing to this home matchup ever since. It’s strange to see, but neither team runs very well anymore. Both have become pass-oriented. It makes sense for the Steelers since they have the best starting wide receivers in the NFL with Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress. They’ve helped the Steelers average close to 300 yards passing. The Steelers like to spread the offense out, and Tennessee doesn’t have enough quality players in its secondary to cover Ward and Burress while keeping an eye out for speedy scatback Amos Zereoue. The Titans have turned to an air attack out of necessity because RB Eddie George rarely is effective anymore. George, who turns 30 this week, started to slip last year. He’s regressed more this season. Sorry but gaining 100 yards against New Orleans doesn’t impress us. This puts everything on Steve McNair, whose accuracy can be affected by a broken finger on his passing hand. McNair doesn’t have the quality wideouts the Steelers have. Derrick Mason is McNair’s only consistent target, and he’s not in the class of Ward and Burress. Versatile Antwaan Randle-El, the Steelers’ No. 3 wideout, probably could start for Tennessee. The Steelers also get a lift on defense with the return of star linebacker Joey Porter, who was pierced by a gunshot on Aug. 31. Porter missed the first two games, but returned to action against the Bengals last Sunday and recorded a sack. PITTSBURGH 30-13.

****BEST BET
NAVY over RUTGERS* by 17

There was a feeling from this corner that when the Naval Academy convinced Paul Johnson to leave Georgia Southern for Annapolis, they had made perhaps the best possible hire that they could for this program. It means a return to option-based football, a terrific way to utilize the size, speed, and discipline of the available athletes, and then Johnson went a step better when he brought Buddy Green in from N.C. State to run the defensive side of the ball. And despite the fact that the Midshipmen won only twice in 12 tries LY, there were major improvements in evidence on both sides of the ball. How about the fact that away from home, against four bowl teams down the stretch (Boston College, Tulane, Notre Dame and Wake Forest), they dealt each of those opponents their worst loss of the season in the total rushing category? They even led Notre Dame and Wake Forest in the fourth quarter before coming up just short, and then dismantled Army 58-12 to cap Johnson’s first season. Now they are already at two wins for this young campaign, and yet this price tells us that the oddsmakers do not even have them close to being pegged right, perhaps because they only had close losses LY, without any break-through upset wins. Craig Candeto can direct an offense filled with veteran skill people with ease against this class of defense, while that vastly improved defense (much more team speed), has not allowed a first half point in the last two games and helps to dictate the tempo here. Minimal home advantage for the Scarlet Knights, if any at all. NAVY 34-17.

***BEST BET
ARKANSAS over ALABAMA* by 16

There are a lot of signs that indicate that Houston Nutt has his Arkansas program emerging at a true elite level, and NO, we are not going to speak much about that dominating win at Texas two weeks ago. That speaks for itself. But there is much more going on in Fayetteville. First we start with the fact that they showed the maturity to take care of business last week – instead of having a major letdown off of the Texas win they had an excellent focus vs. North Texas, and rolled to a 31-7 halftime lead. And then let us put the Texas rout into perspective – it was not all at all out of the ordinary given recent Razorback road performances. The last five times they have been a road underdog they have won three of the games outright, and the two defeats were by identical scores at difficult places to win – 41-38 at L.S.U. to close out the 2001 regular season, and 41-38 in six overtimes at Tennessee LY. They were also S.E.C. road favorites twice LY and took care of business each time in winning at South Carolina and Mississippi State. Now we get to take them in an underdog role once again despite the fact that they are the better team on the field this day. With Matt Jones developing into a poised veteran that poses both a run and a pass threat, and with Cedric Cobbs back to 100%, the Arkansas offense can move the football without having to resort to tricks. As a result, they have turned the ball over only one time in 196 snaps this season, and it is that kind of execution that keeps a team from being at risk for mistakes on the road. ARKANSAS 30-14.

 

[Big_Orange]

Thanks. Your posting is greatly appreciated. Very helpful info.

 

[SportsGuru]

CKO--CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
11* NORTH TEXAS over La.-Lafayette
10* UTAH over *Colorado State
10* NEVADA over Smu
10* MICHIGAN STATE over Iowa
10* SAN FRANCISCO over *Minnesota

11 *NORTH TEXAS over La.-Lafayette
Late Score Forecast:
*NORTH TEXAS 40 - La. Lafayette 6
Toughened by early slate that included road trips to Arkansas, Air Force and top-ranked Oklahoma, North Texas opens play in SunBelt Conference, which Mean Green (2 straight league titles; 11-1 SU & 9-3 vs. spread in conf. games L2Ys) has dominated recently. Punchless La.-Lafayette (10 ppg TY) has lost last 3 meetings vs. UNT by combined 82-13 (0-3 vs. spread). Ragin’ Cajun rush attack (only 106 ypg) will grind to a halt vs. gnarly Mean Green defense, which returns 8 starters from 2002 unit that allowed just 119 ypg on the ground & 15 ppg. And dominant sr. NT Kennedy (5-10, 312; 2002 conf. player of year) will have ineffectual ULL QBs Rekieta & Babb on run all day. Cajun defense has allowed 612 YR on 5.5 ypc in its last 2 games. UNT offense has depth at TB and 2 experienced QBs. So, wouldn’t hesitate to lay it against ULL, which has only 4 pointspread covers vs. SunBelt foes in last 2 seasons.

10 UTAH over *Colorado State
Late Score Forecast:
UTAH 31 - *Colorado Sate 27
Respected CKO scouts rather surprised rested, MWC contender Utah getting nearly full TD in this key conf. opener vs. CSU squad that has unresolved defensive issues. With clever HC Urban Meyer reportedly adding some wrinkles during bye week, Utes strong-armed, 6-4 soph QB A. Smith & emerging go-to, 6-2 jr. WR Warren (16 catches in just 2 games; suspended vs. Tex. A&M) should fully exploit reeling Ram 2ndary that’s allowed awhopping 970 YP vs. 3 major foes so far. And with Utes slashing 6-0, 212 RB Warfield (477 YR, 4.8 ypc, 7 TDs) doing his thing on the ground, anxious CSU defense can ill-afford to blitz on early downs. On other side, suretackling Utah defense effectively copes (again) with Rams highly-mobile QB Van Pelt, who accounted for only 103 yds. in somewhat misleading 28-20 win LY. Utes outgained CSU 481-252 but bogged down too often in redzone. Not this time. Also, make note, Utah is a highly-profitable 19-5 as road dog last decade (9-1 L5Ys)!

10 *NEVADA over Smu
Late Score Forecast:
*NEVADA 44 - Smu 14
Sure, impost is hefty. But this is simply a case of “go-with vs. go-against.” Improving Nevada is 10-4-1 vs. spread its last 15 on board, including 2-0 TY. Struggling SMU is 2-9-1 against line its last 12, including 0-3 TY. Wolf Pack has won & covered last 2 meetings inconvincing fashion. Balanced Nevada has scored 30 ppg TY. Sledgehammer RB Kretschmer, who led NCAA with 1732 YR as a RS frosh before sitting out LY due to a kneeinjury, ran for 3 TDs last week and has 391 YR on 5.2 ypc. And WAC scouts say Wolf Pack attack ready to really start clicking now that versatile jr. Heiser (71%, 291 YP, 49 YR in win over San Jose State) has emerged as clear-cut No. 1 QB. Meanwhile, punching-bag Ponies have been outscored 120-23 in their first 3 games, with only 1 meaningful TD. Ground game has generated just 97 ypg, and QBs Bartel & Wallis have thrown for only 426 yds. with 6 interceptions. Nevada on the rise; SMU sinking. Lay it.

10 *MICHIGAN STATE over Iowa
Late Score Forecast:
*MICHIGAN STATE 20 - Iowa 16
New HC John L. Smith has already made a significant impact at Michigan State. The cupboard was far from bare talentwise when he arrived, as former coach Bobby Williams was a solid recruiter. Now Smith has instilled the proper attitude and improved team discipline to take full advantage of that talent. The defensive turnaround has been dramatic, as last season’s team was the worst in school history, yielding 33 ppg and 214 ypg rushing. This season MSU has given up 21 ppg and just 1.4 ypc through four games, as defenders are in better shape and making more plays. Sr. LB Labinjo lost 30 lbs. and regained his starting status; sr. DE Taplin had a 40-yard int. return TD at ND; soph S Eric Smith had 12 tackles & 2 sacks vs.Irish. The offense is more balanced than last season with the return to health of speedy RB Dortch and the continued improvement of soph RB Hayes (249 YR last 2 games). MSU QB Smoker has developed rapport with new go-to WR Shabaj (20 recs.). Iowa offense has been hampered by WR injuries, and Hawkeyes will find the going tough facing revitalized Spartans.

10 SAN FRANCISCO over *Minnesota
Late Score Forecast:
SAN FRANCISCO 27 - *Minnesota 19
(Sunday, Sept. 28)
After playing offensively-challenged Chicago and youthful Detroit last two games, Minny’s new defense faces a much tougher test this week vs. the faster, deeper, and better-balanced attack of S.F., led by wily and mobileQB Garcia. Vikes vulnerable CBs will have to deal with Niners terrific trio of WRs of Owens, Streets & C. Wilson, not to mention the RB tandem of Hearst & Barlow. NFL insiders report S.F.’s emphasis on def. speed past few drafts is working out, with HC Erickson happy to take more risks because Niner defenders (many of whom were out with injuries late LY) can now pursue & recover more quickly (S.F. allowing only 16 ppg, vs.23 LY). Vikings pleased as punch with their 3-0 start, but now they’re the hunted ones. And S.F., off two late losses (one of which, in St. Louis, shouldn’t have happened), are ravenous to prevent their own 1-3 start.

TOTALS: Cincinnati-Cleveland UNDER (40; estimated)—Except for the Jamal Lewis debacle in Baltimore, Cleveland defense doing well; Bengals have gone “under” three straight under Marvin Lewis... Arizona-St. Louis OVER (45) —Jeff Blake gaining rapport with his WRs faster than expected; defense (only 1 sack first 3 games) a major concern vs. Ram offense (even without Marshall Faulk).

HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): BYU (-3) vs. Air Force—These two developing great series animosity and trading humiliating victories; new def. coord. Mendenhall giving Cougars their best defense in years... CALIFORNIA (+13) vs. Southern Cal—Bears coach Tedford (7-2 as dog) has the magic touch; Cal might despise USC more than UCLA does (yes, that much)... AKRON (-16½) at Buffalo—Charlie Frye & Akron capable of putting up 600+ yds. in this one; Bulls trailed UConn by 24 at the H last week... SOUTH CAROLINA (+16) at Tennessee—Lou’s defense has held Vols’ offense to 17, 17 & 18 L3Ys;Gamecocks’ blue-chip RB Summers blossoming rapidly... PHILADELPHIA (+3) at Buffalo—Andy Reid 13-4-2 as dog L3Ys; Bills’ ground game hurting, so QB Bledsoe vulnerable in pocket.

 

[SportsGuru]

THE SPORTS REPORTER

SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS

BEST BETS
PITTSBURGH over TENNESSEE by 17
CAROLINA over ATLANTA by 17

RECOMMENDATIONS
SAN FRANCISCO over *MINNESOTA by 6
HOUSTON over JACKSONVILLE by 6
DALLAS over *NY JETS by 6

SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS

BEST BETS
IOWA over *MICHIGAN STATE by 20
WAKE FOREST over *VIRGINIA by 8
NAVY over *RUTGERS by 11

RECOMMENDATIONS
LOUISVILLE over TEMPLE by 24
AIR FORCE over *BYU by 7
ARKANSAS over *ALABAMA by 7
TOLEDO over *SYRACUSE by 8
*BOISE STATE over WYOMING by 34
*NEW MEXICO over NEW MEXICO STATE by 20
*MEMPHIS over ARKANSAS STATE by 27
MARSHALL over *TROY STATE by 3
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Detailed Analysis of Best Bet Selections

BEST BET
*PITTSBURGH over TENNESSEE by 17
Big turnaround from when the teams met in the regular season a year ago and the Titans won 31-23 after leading 31-7. For that game, Bill Cowher’s post-game comments said it all after the Steelers had played their fifth road game in seven weeks (but had already won three of them): “We’re a tired football team right now.” Amos Zeroue had taken a pounding by that point in the season and was ineffective. Jerome Bettis wasn’t a weapon in the game because a) he played hurt the entire year and b) they fellbehind so badly. Now the Steelers are much fresher, and come off a game in which their offense was limited by Cincinnati’s Starvin’ Marvin Lewis, the sharpdefensive guru of a head coach, and Sports Reporter’s “Mr. Under” for 2003. Tennessee’s defense seems to be on an in-and-out run. Played well home vs. Oakland, played poorly on the road at Indy, played well home vs. the Saints. If the Steelers needed any extra motivation – and with overpaid athletes, extra motivation is always helpful – there is the not so trivial matter of their 2002 season having been ended by the referees in an overtime playoff loss at Tennessee. They cried, they moaned, they got it out of their system. Then they circled the calendar. Jerome Bettis was not a starter at the beginning of this season, because Bill Cowher wants the guy to play at 100% later in the year. Watch this guy plow through the Tennessee defensive front all afternoon. PITTSBURGH, 31-14.

BEST BET
*CAROLINA over ATLANTA by 17
The Panthers are coming off a bye-week and have had two full weeks of preparation to get ready for this huge double-revenge game against the Mike Vick-less Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons absolutely owned Carolina last season with two wins by a combined score of 71-0. The Falcons posted 393 yards and 426 yards of offense in the wins over the Panthers in 2002, but that was Vick, not current starter Doug Johnson. The Panthers pass rush was totally ineffective against Atlanta last year, but that was Vick, not Johnson. You get the point. John Fox turned around the downtrodden Carolina franchise last year in his first season as head coach, and has now won six of his last seven games (5-2 ATS) dating back to last season. Now he just needs to avenge last year’s humiliating 41-0 and 30-0 losses to Atlanta in order to clear up the most prominent blemish on his record. Unlike last year’s meetings against Vick, Fox’s game plan for this game should be simple: Come off bye, rush the back-up quarterback, kill the other team, get revenge. Atlanta has a win against Dallas accomplished while Bill Parcells was looking ahead to the Giants, and nothing else.
CAROLINA, 27-10.

BEST BET
IOWA over *MICHIGAN STATE by 20
It says somewhere in the first chapter of Football Handicapping 101 that revenge is a great motivator in collegiate sports and, folks, it is. But, it doesn’t matter how much you want to win if you can’t back it up on the field. The truth is that the Michigan State football program has been declining since Nick Saban packed his bags and headed to Baton Rouge. The Spartans have been below .500 SU since his departure and are 6-14 ATS since the midpoint of the 2001 campaign. Don’t read anything into State’s (22-16) victory in South Bend-the Irish can’t play. The Hawkeyes live over on the other side of the spectrum. They’re a perfect 4-0 (SU & ATS) winning by an average of 26.3 PPG, 16-4-1 ATS as chalk the past two plus years, 13-5-1 ATS on the road since 2000 and 17-6-1 ATS in the Big Ten over the same time period, including 3-0 ATS vs. Michigan State. They finished 4th in the country last year in total yards allowed rushing and figure to crack the top 10 again this year. Stay with the hot team. Iowa, 34-14.

BEST BET
WAKE FOREST over *VIRGINIA by 8
It’s Handicapping 101 time: Wake Forest, revenge, plus points, plus the better coach. Whether or not Virginia QB Matt Schaub plays following a shoulder injury suffered in the Wahoos’ opening quarter of play this year. If Schaub plays, he’ll likely “baby” the injury for a while and that will hurt the Cavs offensively and if Schaub’s not playing then WF will haunt either Marques Hagans and/or Anthony Martinez here. Throw in the fact Wake
Forest – a 38-34 loser at home last year as Virginia came from behind to win a nighttime tilt – since last season has moved the ball well against nearly everyone but the very good Purdue defense two weeks ago and you have the recipe for the ACC road upset. Keep in mind that Wake Forest is an electrifying 13-4-1 ATS as pups under thirdyear head coach Jim Grobe and you have another reason to love the Deacs in this payback game in Charlottesville. Virginia’s wide-out speed gets negated here by cat-quick pass rush that ruins the day for whomever calls the signals for the home team. Wake Forest, 31-23.

BEST BET
NAVY over *RUTGERS by 11
Yes, Rutgers had a bye last week, thus giving the Scarlet Knights more time to prepare for Navy’s spread option offense. However, you can have all the time in the world, but it doesn’t matter if you simply don’t have the personnel. And Rutgers doesn’t. The Knights lost their best defensive lineman, Ryan Neill, to a season-ending injury before the 2003 campaign even got underway, and his absence was immediately felt when Rutgers allowed 232 yards rushing in its opener against Buffalo. Yes, Buffalo. So just imagine what a Navy team brimming with confidence can do. The Middies’ 39-7 win over Eastern Michigan enabled them to match their total SU wins for the last two seasons combined (two). Navy has revenge for a 23-17 loss in 2001, the last meeting, but that occurred before Paul Johnson took over as coach and before the Midshipmen reinstalled their option offense. Rutgers was much the better team than Army two weeks ago, but only won by 15—thanks to a last-minute TD—despite a plus-two turnover margin. Navy, 30-19.

 

[SportsGuru]

THE GOLD SHEET

The Gold Sheet EXTRA!!!Technical Play of the Week
NORTH TEXAS over UL-Lafayette ...Recent series trends favor UNT,
which has won and covered handily its last three vs. ULL (two of those
wins via shutout). The Mean Green is also a solid 9-2 vs. the number
in Sun Belt action since 2001.

NFL KEY SELECTIONS:
WASHINGTON by 12 over New England
DALLAS by 7 over N.Y. Jets
UNDER 45 total points in the Kansas City-Baltimore game

NCAA KEY SELECTIONS:
VANDERBILT by 4 over Georgia Tech
BOISE STATE by 33 over Wyoming
SAN DIEGO STATE by 2 over Ucla

WASHINGTON 29 - New England 17 —Bill Belichick losing one starter per week from his prized defense (ILB Ted Johnson, OLB R. Colvin, NT Ted Washington), all of whom were key players in his versatile 3-4 2003 scheme. Now he must quickly adjust to handle Steve Spurrier’s improved offense (24 ppg) and rapidly-developing QB Ramsey (led clutch drives three straight games). Another positive—Spurrier’s former Jets well-familiar with Belichick’s tactics.

UNDER 45 Points BALTIMORE 19 - Kansas City 16—Rampaging Raven RB Jamal Lewis (496 YR already) will be primed again for good showing vs. his former mentor and friend Priest Holmes, who this week will have to deal with Ray Lewis. K.C.’s ‘03 fortified def. front faces its toughest test yet vs. Balt.’s huge bookend tackles of 6-9, 340 Ogden & 6-8, 350 O. Brown. Rookie QB Boller mostly avoiding killer mistakes so far. With top Raven cover CB McAlister back after last week’s team suspension, and with HC Billick staying conservative with Boller, look under generous total.

Dallas 23 - NY JETS 16 —Cowboys certainly used to this trip, having just won their last game on same field two weeks ago vs. NYG. Few coaches bridle their optimism over a win more than the demanding Bill Parcells. But even he has conceded his players made some big strides with that come-from behind OT win. QB Carter (321 YP) made better decisions, more good plays, and fewer mistakes. And Dallas’ receivers (3 speedy wideouts & 2 good TEs) and STs (kicker Cundiff 7 FGs, KR Z. Smith) were poised. With Pennington out, Curtis Martin has only 133 YR TY. And with the “Jetskins” in D.C., N.Y. offense not too scary.

San Diego State 19 - UCLA 17—While UCLA continues to search for identity (and punt coverage) under so far emotionless leadership of 1st-year HC Dorrell, SDSU better balanced (frosh RB Hamilton 509 YR) than LY’s edition that was smoked by more-lethal Bruin bunch at Qualcomm. Hamilton is the best back the Aztecs have had since Marshall Faulk. SDS OL gaining confidence with each outing and capable of punching some holes. Note veteran Aztec “D” has allowed just 2 TDs in 16 Qs!

VANDERBILT 24 - Georgia Tech 20 —Since GT (just 2.9 ypc) lacks powerful ground assault to wear down foes, recommend “taking” with Vandy squad that’s 6-2 as home dog lately. ‘Dores strong-armed soph QB Cutler (250 YP vs. rugged TCU “D”) equipped to damage rebuilt Engineer 2ndary (permitted 3 TDP & 298 YP) that looked befuddled in 39-3 Clemson bashing. Vandy recalls painful 42-point blowout in Atlanta LY (worst defeat of ‘02).

BOISE STATE 51 - Wyoming 18 —After getting “robbed” in 26-24 loss at Oregon State, expect angry BSU (13-game win streak snapped vs. Beavs) to vent frustration vs. defensively-soft, depth-shy Wyo squad playing on road for 3rd time in past 4 weeks. Broncos underappreciated 6-1, sr. QB Dinwiddie (20 TDP, just 3 ints. last 1+Ys) and mates should explode on disconcerting (for foes) “blue carpet,” where BSU has covered 24 of past 30!

 

[SportsGuru]

THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

FLORIDA STATE
Duke has not been within earshot against Florida State since the Seminoles entered the ACC in 1992, never coming closer than 24 in the 11 meetings since. And we don’t look for much to change in Durham Saturday night when Florida State makes a visit to Wallace Wade Stadium. Please note that the Noles have been fairly reliable as a visiting favorite lately, covering 7 of their last 10 chances in that role. As for the Blue Devils, their pointspread performance has regressed in 2003, indicated by failure to cover any of their first three games of the campaign. And Duke’s negative “AFS” (Away From Spread) number is a poor -15.00 ppg its last two outings.

TCU
There are a lot of reasons to look against troubled Arizona these days. The Wildcats are in a terrible tailspin at the moment, having been outscored a whopping 166-30 while failing to cover their last three games this season. Arizona’s running “AFS” number of -26.00 is the nation’s worst over a two game span. And let’s not forget the awful time the Wildcats have had in front of their disenchanted fans in Tucson, who have seen their home team cover just 5 of its last 28 chances as host (and only 3 of the last 19 as a home dog!)! That adds up to a lot of reasons to look against UA when capable TCU goes calling to Wildcat Stadium Saturday night.

RICE
Sometimes we find series trends that are simply hard to ignore, and one of those has been Rice’s recent pointspread mastery over Hawaii. Recent history between these two WAC rivals has favored the Owls, who have covered four straight against the Warriors and seek to improve upon that mark Saturday night at Honolulu’s Aloha Stadium. Please note that Hawaii’s pointspread fortunes have taken a definite turn for the worse since late last season, as the Warriors have dropped 7 of their last 8 games against the number. Hawaii has also covered only 4 of its last 12 chances as a favorite.

NORTH TEXAS
Granted, North Texas has had a bit of rocky road to navigate in the early portion of the 2003 campaign, but things should start to look brighter for the Mean Green beginning Saturday night in Denton when Sun Belt foe UL-Lafayette makes a visit to Fouts Field. Consider that UNT has mostly dominated conference opposition the past two years, netting a solid 9-2 spread mark vs. Sun Belt foes that span. Consider, too, how the Mean Green has absolutely manhandled the Ragin’ Cajuns the past few years, evidenced by easy wins and covers the past three seasons (two of those wins via shutout). And note that talent-shy ULL is just 8-16-2 vs. the spread since the 2001 campaign.

DENVER
One of the worst “travelers” in the NFL over the past few seasons has been Detroit, and the Lions will have to make another one of those dreaded plane trips this week, this one to Denver, to face the always-tough Broncos at Invesco Field. How bad has it been for Detroit away from home the past few years? Consider the subpar 5-11-1 spread mark as a visitor since 2001. And new Lion HC Steve Mariucci hasn’t fared well on his recent travels, either, as his 49er and Lion teams stand just 15-30-1 vs. the line their last 46 tries as a visitor. Not to mention that “Mooch’s” teams have covered just 1 of their past 13 games against the spread since the middle of last season! Meanwhile, Denver stood a solid 11-6 vs. the line its last 17 as host before facing Oakland last Monday night.

 

[SportsGuru]

NORTHCOAST'S POWERSWEEP

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
CINCINNATI +7 over MIAMI (OHIO)

NCAA KEY SLEECTIONS:
4* BYU over Air Force 30-20
3* WASHINGTON over Stanford 37-13
3* USC over CALIFORNIA 35-13
2* Pittsburgh over TEXAS A&M 27-20
2* Arkansas over ALABAMA 17-13
2* Maryland over EASTERN MICHIGAN 51-3

NFL KEY SLEECTIONS:
4* CAROLINA over Atlanta 23-10
3* ST. LOUIS over Arizona 37-16
2* New England over WASHINGTON 21-17
2* Kansas City over BALTIMORE 20-10

NFL TOTALS:
3* CARDINALS/RAMS OVER 45
3* CHIEFS/RAVENS UNDER 45
3* PATRIOTS/REDSKINS UNDER 43
2* 49ERS/VIKINGS OVER 44
2* EAGLES/BILLS UNDER 41

 

[SportsGuru]

MARK LAWRENCE'S PLAYBOOK

UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati over MIAMI OH by 6

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:

5 STAR BEST BETS
PURDUE
EAGLES
COLTS OVER

4 STAR BEST BETS
IOWA STATE
REDSKINS
RAMS OVER

3 STAR BEST BETS
MISSISSIPPI
PANTHERS
STEELERS UNDER
------------------------------------------------------------------
Detailed Analysis of 5 Star Best Bets

UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati over MIAMI OH by 6
The Bearcats have covered seven of their last eight road games, including six in a row as a road underdog with QB Gino Guidugli at the helm. Those numbers and the extra motivation provided by double revenge should spur Cincinnati on to the win here. Note that Miami is just 9-26 SU since 1990 against non-MAC winning teams and that Cincinnati is a solid 8-2 ATS in its last ten revenge games. Gino out-duels Big Ben in Oxford.

5* BEST BET 5*
PURDUE over Notre Dame by 21
Among the many bitter losses suffered by Purdue last season, the loss to Notre Dame is at the top of the list. The Boilers dominated the Irish from start to finish (won stats over 100 yards) but special team gaffs and three costly turnovers fueled an insufferable sevenpoint defeat. We expect much the same kind of dominance from Purdue here as, following last week's destruction of Arizona, the Boilermakers are now 6-0 SUATS at home against an opponent off BB losses under Joe Tiller. As Michigan proved, a top-flight defensive team will strangle the Irish. Purdue kicks 'em while they're down.

5* BEST BET 5*
Philadelphia over BUFFALO by 10
This is a great spot for the Eagles. Coming off a bye and back-to-back home losses, the Eagles have to be extremely hungry for a win. Add Buffalo’s terrible 2-20 ATS record (11 ATS losses in a row) in the game following a Miami game and Philly’s sterling 13-5 ATS mark as road dogs and the game sets up perfectly. Remember, the Green Birds are 7-1 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss with Reid.

5* BEST BET OVER
Colts 12-3-1 OVER vs NFC opp
SAINTS 9-2 OVER home vs AFC opp

 

[SportsGuru]

THE RED SHEET

RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
89* NEVADA-RENO
89* PURDUE
89* SAN DIEGO STATE
88* UTAH
88* MARYLAND
88* WASHINGTON (NFL)

NEVADA-RENO 38 - Southern Methodist 7 - (10:00 EDT) -- Line opened at Nevada minus 18½, and is now minus 19. The Wolfpack has it cooking now, with the return of bruising RB Kretschmer, who missed LY (knee), after running for more than 1,700 yds as a freshman in '01. Reno's wipeout of SanJoseSt last week was an indication of the solid balance of this squad, as the 'Pack topped 270 yds, both rushing & passing, & had it not been for Spartan TDs on 99-yd TDs on an interception return, as well as a kickoff return, it would have been worse. Note 156 RYs & 3 TDs for Kretschmer, along with 291 PYs & 2 TDs for QB Heiser. The Mustangs continue as whipping boys, allowing 40 ppg in their first 3 outings, & 35 ppg in their last 12 contests. Ponies might peek to rare win possibility hosting Utep next week. RATING: NEVADA-RENO 89

PURDUE 34 - Notre Dame 13 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Purdue minus 10, and is still minus 10. We know that the Irish have pulled some monumental upsets through the years, & are in off one of the more surprisingcampaigns in their storied history. However, despite an opening day comeback win over Washington St, they've come down to earth with a thud. ND has been outscored by nearly 20 ppg in their last 5 tilts. Their QB situation is fluid, to say the least, as Holiday was benched for true frosh Quinn at Mich St. Boilers well remember '02, when they held the Irish without an offensive TD, yet lost, due to mistakes. Purdue has got it in gear offensively (580 yds last week), & that Boiler "D" is also solid. Revenge! RATING: PURDUE 89

San Diego State 24 - UCLA 20 - (10:00) -- Line opened at UCLA minus 12, and is now minus 11½. As we noted on Pointwise, the Bruins are caught in a classic sandwich situation here, having gone down at mighty Oklahoma, & with PacTen rival Washington waiting in the wings. In that loss to the Okies, the Uclans actually fared quite nicely, statwise, but were destroyed on special team play. Just the opposite occurred in this meeting a year ago, when Ucla had a 4-yd deficit, but won 43-7. Five Aztec turnovers. Bruins have yet to impress on offense, which spells trouble vs a SanDiegoSt defense, which as allowed only 2 TDs all season (none at OhioSt). Hamilton (220 RYs last wk) & Dlugolecki provide "O" balance.
RATING: SAN DIEGO STATE 89

Utah 35 - COLORADO STATE 30 - (6:30) -- Line opened at ColoradoSt minus 4½, and is now minus 6½. We are frankly surprised at the 2-pt line movement, which obviously shows that the Utes are still under the radar, especially when taking on a "public" squad, which the Rams have become in recent years (4 straight bowls, for example). Utah had last week off, after its 3rd straight cover (only SU loss on missed 2-pt try after coming nearly all the way back from 21-0 deficit at Texas A&M). In QB Smith, the Utes have a tosser who should take full advantage of the Rams'passing "D", which as been smoked with regularity. Last 2 between them have seen Utes with huge stat edges, but narrow losses. Worm turns. RATING: UTAH 88

Maryland 56 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 7 - (6:00) -- Line opened at Maryland minus 35½, and is now minus 35. Of course we realize that the weight is heavy in this one, especially with Clemson on deck for the Terps, but there is simply no other way to go here. Maryland embarrassing start (outright upset loss at NoIllinois, & wipeout at FloridaSt) prevents any look-ahead for the rest of the campaign. Their ensuing rout of Citadel was expected, but last week's exhibition vs West Virginia was the true indication that their dedication hasn't wavered off that start. Check 260 RYs & 238 PYs, along with a 342 yd edge over the Mountaineers. Eastern is again among the worst, & is in off a 340 RY deficit at Navy. This is over early. RATING: MARYLAND 88

WASHINGTON 26 - New England 16 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Washington minus 1½, and is now minus 2½. To say the the Redskins have been involved in tight games would be an understatement. Final margins of 3, 2, & 3 pts in their first 3 outings are evidence enough. So why place them in this spot, as 2½ pt chalks? The fact of the matter is that Washington is now becoming the squad that the faithful had envisioned, when Spurrier was snagged from his comfortable perch at Florida. Ramsey has thrown for 356 & 348 yds the past 2 wks, which only serves to complement an overland game that has posted 187, 125, & 124 yds to date. The Pats are hurting on "D", & that New England "O" is averaging just 281 ypg. RATING: WASHINGTON 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Miami-Oh, OregonSt, Lsu, AirForce, - NFL: Minnesota, Washington, Chicago

 

[SportsGuru]

POWERSWEEP DETAILED ANALYSIS

4* BYU over Air Force - The Cougars have been very solid at defending the wishbone with a 12-6 ATS mark the L/18 and have our #23 ranked defense. BYU did give us a couple of wins vs the wishbone like the College Play of the Year in 1989 and later with a rare 4’* Late Phone Selection. Air Force has covered 4 of the L/5 in this series. The only game AF didn’t cover was in 2001 when BYU simply led 63-13 after the 3Q as a 12’ pt HF to deliver a Winner as a 4* Late Phone Selection. AF is 1-9 SU (only won in 1982) & 3-6 ATS in Provo. BYU is 4-9 ATS the L/13 MWC HG. AF has perhaps their best team under DeBerry but the teams’ stats coming in are misleading here as AF has faced a very soft opening slate and come in here undefeated, while BYU has faced 4 tough opp’s. BYU is coming off a tough upset loss LW vs Stanford. Fr QB John Beck made his first start LW, replacing Matt Berry, who broke his hand and Beck had 279 yds (67%) with a 1-2 ratio. RB Reynaldo Brathwaite has 310 rush yds (6.0). Air Force was very fortunate to escape with a SU win in their only road game this year as they trailed NW 21-7 and BYU rates a clear strength of schedule edge and always matches up well in this. FORECAST: BYU 30 Air Force 20

3* WASHINGTON over Stanford - The Huskies are 17-2 SU and 13-5-1 ATS in the series since ‘80, and 5-0 SU & ATS L/5 in Seattle. The Huskies are just 2-6-1 ATS L/9 conference openers. We noted LW that Gilbertson’s more conservative approach would make him a better HF than Neuheisel was and he has covered both times in that role TY (both frontdoor ******). The Huskies do have a big game at UCLA on deck. UW’s biggest edge is their #11 ranked D-line vs a Stanford O-line with just 1 starter back that is making its 2nd road start in a very loud environment. UW has a big edge on offense (#15 vs #65) and Stanford QB rFr Trent Edwards was only 10 of 23 for 25 yds in his 1st start while the team had its worst ever passing day vs BYU LW with a total of 56 yds. Both teams have good defenses (#21 vs #24) but Wash Sr QB Cody Pickett has the experience and the WR cast of Reggie Williams & Charles Frederick to be the difference here. FORECAST: WASHINGTON 37 Stanford 13

3* USC over CALIFORNIA - This is already Cal’s sixth game and they are off of their 31-24 upset at Illinois. USC is 5-2 ATS as an AF the L/3Y. In their current 11 game winning streak USC has won by an avg score of 41-19 and they have not allowed an opposing rusher to gain 100 yds for 16 straight games. USC QB Matt Leinart is avg 216 ypg (60%) with a 6-3 ratio and a 140.0 efficiency rating (better rating than Palmer after 3 LY). LW Cal QB Aaron Rodgers (PS#14JC) got his first start and threw for 263 yds (54%). The Bears main target at WR is Geoff McArthur who has 35 rec (17.9). Rankings-wise the Trojans have big edges (#8 vs #51 off & #2 vs #67 D). Since 5H’s are so rare for us we always like to mention when we used one in a series and in 1987 we used USC (-10) here in Berkeley as our Sept 5* and USC won 31-14. With the rash of upsets to Top 10 teams LW, USC should be well prepared and they are the much more talented team and already won at Auburn by 20. FORECAST: USC 35 CALIFORNIA 13

NCAA OTHER SELECTIONS:

2* Pitt over TEXAS A&M - LY’s game was a defensive struggle (see Past History). A&M just played VT last Thursday and led by QB Reggie McNeal had a 216-109 yard edge at the half before giving up two late TD’s in the loss. The Aggies are 29-1 SU their L/30 vs non-conf opp’s at Kyle Field but lost LY to VT. We think the Aggies are headed towards a 6-6 season and even though Pitt disappointed us LW they are still our pick to win the Big East Title. In their upset loss to Toledo LW the Panther secondary was diced for 461 yds by TU QB Bruce Gradkowski. Pitt was without 3 OL LW but Harris said they should return for this one. Panther QB Rod Rutherford leads the NCAA in pass efficiency avg 296 ypg (65%) with an 11-2 ratio. Star Pitt WR Larry Fitzgerald caught 10 passes in LY’s loss as a frosh and remember that A&M lost its top CB (#1 DC Sammy Davis) to graduation. The Wrecking Crew has not faced a QB or a WR of this caliber yet this season & has allowed 197 ypg (4.2) rushing vs 3 ground-oriented offenses. The 6-4 Fitzgerald may cause matchup problems for the Ags secondary in which all 4 starters are 5-10. Also A&M top LB Jared Morris was lost for the year 2 weeks ago. Look for the Panthers to rebound after blowing a big lead LW. FORECAST: Pitt 27 TEXAS A&M 20

2* Arkansas over ALABAMA - The home team has won and covered 4 of the L/5 in this series. In 1999 we used Alabama as our September 5*, and they dominated much more than the final indicated winning 35-28 as 2 pt HD’s with a 22-14 FD edge and won despite 6 TO’s. The 2 years prior to that we won with two 4* Late Phone Plays on the Hogs and they not only pulled outright upsets in those games, but covered by 20’ and 25’ pts. LY Alabama took the Hogs by surprise pulling off a 30-12 win as 6’ pt road dogs. Bama QB Brodie Croyle was making his 1st career start, and threw for 285 yds as Bama outgained Ark 552-299. Ark managed to avoid massive letdown after their huge win over Texas as they covered vs N Texas LW (31-7). Bama may have been looking ahead to this game as they shockingly lost to N Illinois. Ark is just 3-8 as an AF under Nutt. Ark RB Cedric Cobbs has rushed for 3 consecutive 100 yd games accumulating 364 yds (7.0). Bama RB Shaud Williams has 459 yds (5.2). Bama’s D has only allowed 67 ypg rushing, while Ark’s has allowed 130 ypg, but the 212 yds allowed vs Tulsa were mostly by backups. The last time these two teams met in Alabama, the final was misleading as Ark lost 31-10 despite a 21-11 FD edge. The Tide played #1 Oklahoma tough at home this year but the Hogs beat a stronger Texas team on the road and have the more talented team and get the SU road win. FORECAST: Arkansas 17 ALABAMA 13

2* Maryland over E MICHIGAN - In 2001 we used MD as a 4* Small College Play and they won easily 50-3 over EM. LY we used MD again, as a 3* Small College Play and the Early Bird Play of the Week and once again they gave us the win, as MD has now outscored EM 95-6 in this short series. In LY’s matchup QB Scott McBrien threw for 300 yds and left the game in the 3Q, 38-0. MD has outscored their foes 95-7 since their 2 losses TY and that mirrors last season when they went 8-2 ATS down the stretch. McBrien is avg 142 ypg (51%) with a 1-3 ratio. RB Bruce Perry returned LW. EM is just 3-8 ATS as a HD under HC Woodruff. EM had the worst defense in Div IA LY and after playing 2 of 4 games vs IAA opponents and are #116 TY. MD does have Clemson on deck but are 16-3 as a fav under Friedgen. This is perhaps the biggest talent mismatch that will be lined TY. FORECAST: Maryland 51 E MICHIGAN 3

NFL KEY SELECTIONS:

4* CAROLINA over Atlanta - The Panthers are off a bye that came at a good time as HC Fox said he had a lot of people in the trainer’s room after their upset win over the Bucs. LY the Falcons outscored the Panthers 71-0, outFD’d them 50-22 and outgained them 819-327 so the Falcons overall matchup rather well vs the Panthers. On the other hand the Panthers have had an extra week to plan for the Falcons and revenge could be a motivating factor here vs the Johnson led Falcons. In the first game the Panthers were forced to play their #3 QB for most of the game as QB Peete was inj’d and Weinke was KO’d with a concussion. In the second game, the Panthers waived their starting RT and WR Steve Smith was suspended for fighting with a teammate. The home team is 6-2-1 ATS the L/9 in the series and the Falcons are 9-2-2 ATS vs the Panthers. The Panthers are 12-5-1 ATS the L/18 when hosting a division team. QB Delhomme gets his 2nd start here and hopes to improve his 15.9 QB rating from his last game although it was against a TB that does that to most QB’s. Doug Johnson has avg’d 173 yds passing (55%) with a 4-6 ratio but Falcons WR’s only have 259 yds (11.7 ypc) and 1 TD. The Panthers may get LB’s Morgan and Favors back this week and Delhomme will have the home crowd on his side for a win in Ericsson Stadium. FORECAST: CAROLINA 23 Atlanta 10

3* ST LOUIS over Arizona - The Cardinals go back to the city from whence they came and LY the Rams were -10’ at home but only won 30-28 in the Cards 2nd meeting here since moving. The Rams led 24-7 at the half but letup and needed a 26 yard FG with :20 left to pull out the win. St Louis is 13-3 SU, 10-5-1 ATS and 12-4 O/U as a division host since 1999. The Cardinals are a scrappy 5-2 ATS travelling in a division game and 6-1 ATS on the road after a SU win. The Rams are 3-9 ATS the L/12 as a DD HF. The Cardinals have played surprisingly well so far TY (#6 offense and #9 defense) as they have outFD’d foes 20-17 and outgained them 360-298. The Rams were returning to form as an offensive powerhouse LW but RB Faulk had yet to break out TY with 116 yds rushing (2.8 ypc) on the year before breaking his hand. The Rams have played a tough set of games so far TY travelling to 2 of 3 playoff caliber teams and this may be a flat spot. The Cardinals played well LW upsetting the Packers LW but now have to travel into a dome and take on a team that 0-2 in division play. Martz needs a win here in case of tiebreakers for a playoff spot and the Rams need to show that they can win without Faulk. FORECAST: ST LOUIS 37 Arizona 16

NFL OTHER SELECTIONS:

2* New England over WASHINGTON - This game features two of the best coaches in defensive minded Bill Belichick vs offensive minded Steve Spurrier. New England got a sneak peak at 3 of the NFC East teams they play this year in preseason. Belichick game planned for all 3 so they basically have had two full weeks to prepare for each and they beat Philly soundly in Wk 2. New England has won 4 of it’s last 5 road games vs the NFC. The Redskins have surprisingly rushed for 136 ypg (4.7 ypc) so far this year considering Spurrier’s passing history (29 pass att’s vs 10 rush 1H vs ATL). Spurrier says this is due to the fact his 2 new OG’s haven’t adjusted to the pass blocking schemes. This is evident in the 13 sacks allowed resulted in QB Ramsey’s swollen knee and sprained shoulder. The Patriots may start using more 4-3 defenses with LB’s Colvin and Johnson out and they lost DT Washington to a broken leg LW. The Patriots will also now have to face a swift set of LB’s headed by LB Arrington and we wonder just how effective the screen and sweep plays they favor will be especially with the status of WR Patten who left LW with a leg injury being unknown . However, we feel Pats are the stronger team and get the road win. FORECAST: New England 21 WASHINGTON 17

2* Kansas City over BALTIMORE - Chiefs’ RB Priest Holmes returns to Baltimore and faces off vs the RB who replaced him in Jamal Lewis. Both RB’s have done well for themselves TY with Holmes avg 99 ypg (4.8 ypc) rushing and Lewis earning an avg of 165 ypg (7.3 ypc) rushing. Kansas City is 9-3 ATS and O/U vs non-division teams. Baltimore is 15-6-1 ATS at home vs non-division teams. QB Kyle Boller has played like a rookie QB is supposed to throwing for an avg of 109 yds (51%) with a 2-3 ratio in his first 3 games. His deficiencies have pretty much been hidden by a strong defense and rush attack which was evident as Billick did not let him throw a pass in the 4Q LW. Trent Green has started slowly as well with 223 ypg passing (61%) with an 3-5 ratio. The Ravens have a bye up next. LW Baltimore was lucky to be leading SD at the half as their only offense was a fumble advanced for a TD. They were outFD’d 12-8 and outgained 214-110 and the Chargers had a 9:12 TOP edge. This pits each teams strength against each other with the Chiefs #4 offense vs the Ravens #12 defense. The flip side of the ball does have KC with a much improved unit (16 vs LY’s 32nd rank). The Chiefs have our 4th best special teams unit and are the more complete team and capable of winning their 2nd road game in a row. FORECAST: Kansas City 20 BALTIMORE 10

 

[Big_Orange]

Sweet..........I was hoping you would put up Marc Lawrence. He has been on fire as of late.

 

nice writeups. thanks for the info and good luck this weekend.

 

[jdoggoakley]

As an addition to this terrific thread, last week I bought the Platinum Report..they give a free week if they fail to show a profit the previous week. Last week they were -5 units and the previous week they were 1-7....(so take these guys for what they're worth)


But...here are their free winners for this weekend:

SAT:
4* Miss St +13 1/2
3* ND +10
3* Navy +1 1/2

SUN:
4* Carolina -6
4* Clev/Cinn Over
3* SF
3* IND -1 1/2
3* JAX/HOU UNDER

Hope this helps anyone intersted.

420

 

[kbmnm247]

Gotta love posts like these, this is what makes RX the best forum around. Great post Guru and hopefully you will continue to post these!

 

[SportsGuru]

Thanks guys as promised I will, some weeks the report may be a little lighter then others (this is very time consuming) but will have a bunch everyweek nevertheless!

 

[Jarbo]

Bump.

Keep up the good work!

Luck

 

[cincy_]

I LOVE SPORTSGURU!!!!!!!!!

AWESOME

 

[mudman]

Thanx Guru!!!!

 

[alvogel]

Guru, I myself have subscribed to alot of these newsletters, over the years and again this year. Pure reading enjoyment for me.
Next year I am signing up with you, so I hope you continue. What a great savings for me.
Thanks